leavers in the rich world are about to bid a tearful goodbye to their parents and start a new life at university. some are inspired by a pure love of learning. but most also believe that spending three or four years at university—and accumulating huge debts in the process—will boost their chances of landing a well-paid and secure job.

their elders have always told them that education is the best way to equip themselves to thrive in a globalised world. blue-collar workers will see their jobs offshored and automated, the familiar argument goes. school dropouts will have to cope with a life of cash-strapped insecurity. but the graduate elite will have the world at its feet. there is some evidence to support this view.